#April#Month End Review#May Goals#Thoughts

#April#Month End Review#

Thank God for Rakeback

Not too much to say except, I ran extremely well throughout the majority of the month. Just goes to show how much variance can play into your win-rate and results. 

Throughout the whole month my game was all over the place; which usually was a result in over-adjusting to tendencies of opponents. I frequently found myself 3-betting 8-10% at the full-ring zoom games; which is certainly high by most standards. 

Easter weekend- gave me a huge upswing; shots at 200nl-zoom went extremely well and I believe that I've fixed a few leaks in my 6-max game. 

Typically speaking my full-ring zoom game is much stronger than my 6-max game, however for this month be it variance or just my style of play my winrate has been much higher in the 6-max games than usual. 

I'm not too sure why many players who post results are keen to hide their "VPIP/PFR/3bet" stat as those numbers tend to converge within 2-3k hands of playing and will give very little information as to how you play.  

Over-adjusting to "anomalies" was a huge leak of mine nearing the end of this month which I found. Rather than considering my entire range as well as opponent's entire range I found myself justifying plays by "feel". 

Not that I personally berate the idea of playing by "feel" or whether or not I "believe" that opponent will look me up light, or what my image was; I think those aspects are secondary to range-construction, pot odds, implied odds, position, relative hand strength. 

For the entire month I ended up playing roughly 183 hours; with around 7-10 hours of "off-table work" which almost entirely consisted of me browsing forums; watching old videos, and reviewing my own hands. 

Thoughts and Reflections

For the upcoming month a lot of factors will end up affecting the goals in which I have in mind. 

SCOOP is coming around the corner as everyone in the online poker world should be fairly acquainted with, and Pokerstars has given me the option of splitting up my 5200$- WCOOP main event ticket into smaller chunks. With that in mind; one of my goals is certainly to play in a handful of these events and hopefully cash in a few.

The weather is also starting to clear up with many more sunny days are predictable weather, and due to the nature of only 3-4 months of "sunny season" in Vancouver I'm inclined to drop my volume down a bit in order to enjoy the beautiful beaches. 

As regarding to moving up stakes; I use a fairly conservative bankroll- management, as well as regularly cash-out. I'm an avid believer of having multiple streams of income from different sources and have been actively putting away some money and riding the US.Bull market for the last year, as money sitting in my bankroll isn't doing much to increase my hourly.

Since I'm also looking into purchasing an apartment in Vancouver in the foreseeable future it will be awhile before I start building my roll large enough to handle the swings.  

There has been some scepticism that the current market is due for a correction in response to the last 30 or so of "boom". My guess is that the shift of money from the real estate market into stocks resulted in declining of real estate and interest rates. Immigration policy being tightened up is also a likely cause for the result in Vancouver however doesn't entirely explain the mortgage rates throughout Canada. Because of the speculation, I'm convinced that it's likely a good time to purchase property with the notion of either "rental income" or a rebound due to a shift of money from stocks into real-estate. 

Variance, psychology, confidence. 

I've gotten a few questions regarding whether as to why I'm not playing any higher than 100nl. The answer is quite simple and segregated into 2 parts. 

1)- It's all about the hourly, 2) The mental side.

I'm a big proponent of the ZooM games, for reasons which I will discuss in a future post. Since 200nl- Fullring zoom doesn't run, or hardly runs at all; my only remaining option is the 200nl-6max games. 

My 6-max results historically have not been my best and would much prefer to see a solid winrate at 100nl-6max over a large sample size (500k hands) before attempting to make the jump fully. With a higher stake, smaller edges, a increase in variance of "downswings" will occur. I don't think I've personally matured to the point of being apathetic towards the temporary loss of money as a 4-8k downswing at 200nl will certainly affect my mental game. 

So hypothetically speaking; if my "A-game" results in a "3-4bb/100 winner at 200nl", a variance induced downswing may result in a prolonged downswing via playing a "C-game" of "-5-6bb/100".  At 100nl-zoom on the other hand; I've yet to experience any down-swing of that nature in the last 8-10 months and am fairly confident that my B-game is still profitable enough to justify grinding. 

I will eventually make the jump after; 

A) Showing extremely solid results at 100nl-6 max over an extended period of time

B) Getting over the habit of constantly checking my results and losses/ letting it affect my game.

Goals for May

1. Obtain a subscription to training site.
2. Enjoy the weather, eat well and exercise.
3. Maintain 50k VPPs for Supernova Elite
4. Constantly work on bringing a solid A-game and A-Mental Game to the table.

Cheers~ Best of luck to everyone else on the tables~ =)

Good luck in May ! 

April Mid-Month Update #Upswing#Heater#$14,000

April Mid-Month Update #Upswing#Heater

It's been a long time since I lasted updated this blog, primarily due to the amount of run-bad and spew I had in March. Last weekend had one the sickest single most heaters of my life at around hand 80k-ish or so. I typically don't get too involved deep. 

Spent the entire month at 100nl- 6max and 100nl- full ring both zoom tables, maybe if the heater continues I'd set a new monthly record for myself. I personally don't think I've changed my game too much recently and almost 100% of the results are a result of variance and being able to control tilt.

Despite how smooth the results may seem I've actually spewed a ton this month, probably due to playing a lot of hands extremely deep vs a few regs. 

I've realized how easily one can underestimate variance, the good kind as well as the bad kind. It's easy to change your game due to variance induced downswings, and fall into the trap of "Changing what Ain't Broke". Attempting to change a "winning game strategy" completely because of a mild downswing or run-bad can result in further downswings. 

Over the last 140k hands works out to be about 7bb/100 which is quite awesome, but unlikely sustainable at 100nl-zoom tables. Also the first month I've made more at the 6-max tables than the full-ring zoom tables which is new for me as well.

Good luck to everyone else on the tables =)~ 

Supernova Elite Hit!

After many hours of clicking and typing, here we are now. I apologize for the lack of updates this month and will hopefully be doing several updates preceding the little challenge I set for myself that prompted the start of this blog.

Happy Holidays Everyone !! 

and if You're Still Grindin'~ Good Luck!

This is Why We make Money- Poker is Gambling

This is Why We make Money- Poker is Gambling 

Read on

What is Poker? It's a game of incomplete information, and as any such phenomenon in the real world there's a luck aspect involved. 

The respective player within this game will be dealt a hand; in the long run the luck of the hand portion will be evened out. The community cards that fall out are going to be indiscriminate of which players are on the tables. That in itself is the luck portion which in the long-run evens out itself.

Variance 

This in itself is going to be something that will affect all players regardless of if you're Daniel Negreneau or Tom Dwan. This is merely a simple way of explaining and describing what happens when a negative result is unavoidable despite the assumption of optimal play.

You can and will lose money making good plays in the short-run.

But here's the Caveat. With the same respect, poor-players can subsequently "Make Money" whilst making unconsciously "bad-plays". "chasing draws, poor equity, poor range construction". 

The Perspectives

To a winning player that's losing money; he knows that his long-run will be profitable and is able to distribute his results accordingly to variance or bad play. This is a result of of his/her experience and understanding of skill.

To a recreational player that's losing money; He's getting unlucky, when he's winning money he's getting lucky. A skill evaluation of himself is not present. 

A winning player can evaluate his skill level, because he understands what a skill level is. Whether a play is good or bad in the long run. 

A recreational player cannot evaluate his skill level since he either A) does not understand there is a such thing as skill-level in poker B) unable to determine whether a play is good or bad. 

So Why Does this Matter?

Poker is gambling and luck. 

If it was a game of 100% skill and it was transparent as such. Think to yourself:

Would a recreational player engage in a game that he has no skill advantage in? 

Would a recreational player knowingly put money in a game that he has 0% in getting back?

The notion that Poker is Gambling is what keeps Professional Poker Players alive.

If the world is to accept Poker is a game of skill, this would drive the recreational players out. They would understand that in the long-run they're being taken in for a ride and hustled into bankruptcy. 

If the world is to accept Poker is a game of skill, all those that would pursue it would actively increase their skill edge.

Consider This:

A Boxing tournament has a registration of 100$. 100 entrants. Top prize is $5500 Second $2000, Third $1500 Fourth $1000. 

- If boxing were a game of luck; there's no money to be made or lost, and it's a break-even gamble in the long run.

-Given that boxing is not a game of "entirely luck". Do you think there would be a lot of "Recreational contestants".

Hopefully I've been able to clear up some things to the strangeness of this "profession". So the next time variance hits you hard; understand that it is Variance itself that keeps the games Profitable. 

Embrace Variance, Embrace Tilt. 

Love this aspect of the game. 

So the next time someone comes up to you and say isn't Poker Gambling?

This is the most +EV reply:

It sure is! You have an equal chance as winning as me; Let's Play =). 

Month End Review - November #Disaster Strikes

November Review- December Goals

Poker

It's been awhile since I've updated my blog and hopefully the graph to the left will illustrate sort of the reason. Unlike the beautiful results that I've attained in October. This month started off as a disaster and didn't really result in my full recovery. Thankfully for the Pokerstars VIP system I somehow managed to end the month in the positive despite the atrocious results on the tables.  I took 4-5 days off in November attempting to freshen my mind from the continuous downswings that never seemed to cease.

The Numbers 

Now as you can see to the left 200nl was a complete disaster for me. Considering the small sample size along with the "negative" "ev winrate" it's pretty easy to conclude that I played awful and ran just as awful. I ended up making 127859.19 VPPs for the month. Full-Ring Zoom is a breeze as usual, my 6-max game deteriorated. Approximately 255 hours on the tables as well. This worked out to be 18$/hour after losses despite the ridiculously poor performance on the tables. 

Lessons

Butchering my Game Plan- I made every single possible mistake possible last month. I played late into the night with the notion of "chasing my losses", lost track of what a profitable game was, and spewed relentlessly. It had began bad to the point that I had other players on the table commenting on how my play is so much worse/ different than before. The FOLD button also seems to magically disappear from my field of view while on a downswing and been replaced by the "Shove or Call option". 

You don't have to win every pot- If only I could have repeated this to myself while on the tables. . . countless amount of money would have been saved. My biggest losing day for the month I had dropped almost 4x the amount more than my biggest winning day. (-5.7k vs +1.6k) . Neglecting stop losses and constantly peeking at my graph mid-session resulted in poor performance on the tables and self inducing tilt. 

Variance is variance, let it go- What is variance and what isn't?. Let's just take a breather and assume that my plays were 100% best to my abilities and 0% tilt-play was involved. Well had I run at "Expected Value", my month would have been at approximately +9.4k. Had I run 4.6k above rather than below, I would have ended the month at +14k profit. 

Stop blaming variance- Rather complimentary to my previous lesson. There's a line, sometimes a thick line sometimes a thin line between variance and poor play. 

eg. I call a 6bet-shove with 9Ts and lose to AK-Situation 1 

eg. I call a 5bet-shove with KK and lose to AA-Situation 2

In almost 95% of the cases situation 2 is "variance" situation 1 is "bad play". Despite having more "equity vs the hand" in situation 1. There's a pretty clear line of the two hypothetical examples I gave is variance/bad play. As ranges become thinner and thinner it becomes less conclusive whether a play is poor or good.

That being said, I don't think that my game has "evolved" to that level of strategy; nor do I think that the skill levels at small stakes (100-200nl) have reached the epitome of poker. 

*Note to self* - Don't overestimate fold equity or thin value. It's an easy sure fire way to kick up variance through the roof. 

Goals for December

• Hit up the gym 4-5x a week. 
• Hit Supernova Elite
• Work on maintaining A-Game and hopefully recover from "november Downswing"
• Manage Time much better
• Have lots of fun "It is the holidays"
• 3evbb/100 - 200k hands -
• Not checking my results relentlessly. (Hopefully just once a day. . then couple days. . then week.) 

 

Disaster Strikes- Week 1 -November

To start off; the month was more or less alright; I had several terrible (F-Game sessions).

F- Game is something much worse than C-Game, whereas C-game is just me trying to win every single pot without regards for what hand I have. . . .

F-Game is me trying to play as many pots . . whether not I win or lose.

The majority of the run-bad occurred at 200nl-6 max ZOOM. As you can see. . in a single week I cranked out close to 100k hands. . which is a result of me grinding way too much. Playing an excessive amount of volume is a heavy contributor to not playing my most optimal.

I'm planning to drop 200nl for a few days and grind it out at the lower stakes (100nl FR - 6max) . . this is probably the biggest downswing I've had since the end of September where I also experienced a 6k drop.

In terms of "big blinds". I'm down about 35 bi's for the month and about 25 bi's below ev. . . absolutely atrocious. I was completely taken by surprise at the craziness of variance this month.

Hopefully I can cut down on the grinding just a tad bit and update a little bit more throughout next week.

I'm currently sitting on about 858k VPPs, (33k for the month). Dropping 200nl for now will definitely put a small dent in my VPPs for the year; however I'm sure that it will be a huge benefit to my win rate.

Being on a downswing is a terrible feeling. . . it's a cold and dark place where all you actions are clouded with doubt. It feels as if you can't win a single pot, and that you don't even know how to play poker. . (actually).

Hopefully by the end of this week I will have regained my confidence and have a solid game. I notice that results orientation can have a huge impact on fluctuations in one's game.

It's so easy to start trying to change everything about your game-plan even though it's just variance coming on. More often than not; I'm finding that the changes that I make are hurting my game more than helping. . .

Best of luck to everyone else on the remainder of your grinds !! ,

See ya on the tables !

POKERSTARS 72s PROMOTION REVIEW #FREE MONEY

POKERSTARS 72s PROMOTION REVIEW #FREE MONEY

After the announcement of Pokerstars Promotion on 72s BOOM hand which has been reviewed by many grinders/bloggers I decided to do an update and thorough review on how profitable it seemed to be! 

Let's start off with some graphs; ~ 

Graph on the left was specifically me playing 72s within those days where the BOOM Promotion was going forth. 

Some of the grinders were quite ''skeptic'' in saying that playing 72s might not be worth the additional $$ that can be won with the boom promotion.  

I've made a post prior this month to  regarding the value of opponents attempting to play 72s in the wrong spots and donating lumps of money to other players like me. Most certainly I think the 72s was much more profitable than the Happy Hour Promotion. 

The actual amount of money made directly through both promotions were more or less the same; however  whereas the 72s promotion tempted players to play much worse by attempting to play marginal hands with poor execution and plays; the Happy Hour Promotions flooded the games with grinders and very nitty players grinding VPPs.

As you can see not every day I was able to hit the BOOM promotion. This was due to it being particularly difficult to win with 72s Out of Position in FR, as well as fullring-zoom poker beingd.

frequently running short-handed whilst I played.

Nonetheless. 89$ from BOOM Promotion 82$ from winning hands with 72s. As well as least 200$ from players poorly executing plays with 72s brings it up to a very well bonus indeed for just 1 week in the month. Hopefully PokerStars will continue regularly with the BOOM PROMOTIONS as they are indeed very good for the games (:

Late Night Session Friday #EV-RAPED#MTTCASH!

I was initially just going to call it a day after the previous post about my Friday review however due to the nature of grinding SNE I had to maintain around 3300+ VPPs a day if I wanted any shot at having the winter holidays off. . .

Seeing as when I had updated prior to this I realized that I've only accumulated only around 2500 VPPs.


Given that I started the second portion of my grind for the day around 12am I was very tempted to sleep unless of course. . . I had a reason to be forced to sit at the tables. Low and behold I saw "The Big 16.50$ " running and decided it'd be a nice change of scenery, not a huge amount of money, and a very nice first prize to be won. Few hours later; made some money on the tables; cashed a MTT, and got my VPPs. I will be sleeping like a baby tonight. The only thing that could've made tonight better would've been a 10bi upswing and a final table . . but of course let's not get too greedy ;)~

Now for those of you skeptics and micro-grinders/ aspiring to be a pro. . . saying that "there's no money it's too hard, no more fish. . ." let me just introduce you to a few hands that happened within "this session alone". 

Shippin' it Pre-
Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2320430
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $120.07
SB: $101.50
BB: $109.50
UTG: $103.77
MP: $50.08
CO: $124.40

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with K A
1 fold, MP raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $7, 1 fold, BB raises to $12, 1 fold, Hero raises to $26.50, BB raises to $109.50 all in, Hero calls $83

Flop: ($221.50) T 4 4 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: ($221.50) A (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($221.50) 8 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $221.50
Hero shows K A (two pair, Aces and Fours)
BB shows K 3 (a pair of Fours)
Hero wins $218.70
(Rake: $2.80)


Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2320432
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $90.06
SB: $147.74
BB: $110.50
UTG: $107.52
Hero (MP): $107.77
CO: $100.83

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP with A K
1 fold, Hero raises to $2.50, 1 fold, BTN raises to $9, 2 folds, Hero raises to $21, BTN raises to $90.06 all in, Hero calls $69.06

Flop: ($181.62) K T K (2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: ($181.62) 2 (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($181.62) 3 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $181.62
BTN shows T J (two pair, Kings and Tens)
Hero shows A K (three of a kind, Kings)
Hero wins $178.82
(Rake: $2.80)


Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2320433
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $272.96
SB: $231.53
BB: $101.50
UTG: $209.23
MP: $117.72
Hero (CO): $194.19

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with K K
2 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, BTN raises to $9, 2 folds, Hero raises to $23.50, BTN raises to $272.96 all in, Hero calls $170.69 all in

Final Pot: $389.88
BTN shows 8 7 (two pair, Nines and Eights)
Hero shows K K (two pair, Kings and Nines)
BTN wins $193.54
Hero wins $193.54
(Rake: $2.80)

(Deuces Cracked hand converter has problems showing run it twice. . . If anyone's curious; yes he flushed on me the first time around)

 Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2320435
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $106.00
UTG: $85.82
MP: $57.13
CO: $261.38
BTN: $37.00
SB: $14.39

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with K K
UTG calls $1, MP raises to $3.50, 2 folds, SB calls $3, Hero raises to $11.50, UTG calls $10.50, MP raises to $57.13 all in, SB calls $10.89 all in, Hero raises to $106 all in, UTG calls $74.32 all in

Flop: ($243.16) 9 8 Q (4 players - 4 are all in)

Turn: ($243.16) J (4 players - 4 are all in)

River: ($243.16) 8 (4 players - 4 are all in)

Final Pot: $243.16
Hero shows K K (two pair, Kings and Eights)
UTG mucks 6 5
MP mucks K A
SB mucks J A
Hero wins $57.38
Hero wins $128.01
Hero wins $54.97
(Rake: $2.80)